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Oculus Spirit [98324]
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+254. Thanks coffee!!!!!!
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May 15, 2024, 11:19 AM
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Over/under on when cocoa/chocolate will be excluded? I'd wager that's next month's exclusion.
FWIW, here's the list of things that were included, then excluded. Tomatoes are up to Nov. 2022 highs. Coffee briefly visited 2022 highs. Shortening is still way up 3/4 as high as the peak 2022 price. Auto insurance is at record levels, but they axed that in 2022 along with new car and truck prices. Property and casualty insurance is at all-time highs as well. They long ago excluded gasoline, oil, and housing prices.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/discontinued-series.htm
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Hall of Famer [22451]
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took a small position
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May 15, 2024, 11:21 AM
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shorting s&p, thinking we'd have a hot CPI.
I don't get it. S&P will be 6500 before the election. eff it.
I'm withdrawing all the money I made the past two days and putting my guy back in full control haha.
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Oculus Spirit [98324]
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No way we would with three brand new exclusions
May 15, 2024, 11:26 AM
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All things that are WAY high. Shortening is actually down a little, and is kind of an outlier, but it's still very high. Wheat is climbing as well recently.
I figured the market would be up 400 today, and CPI would drop to expectations, or below. Keeping the pablum flowing for rate cuts this year. But deep down I think Jerome Powell is going to stand put for a long time here. I don't think he trusts the data, and with good reason. It's provided by an entity whose parent company has hundreds of billions of dollars to gain with lower inflation, and trillions to lose with higher inflation.
I agree inflation is back on a slow rise, but you have to go with the data, right or wrong, when betting. Those exclusions came out a while back, Mid-April I think. Cross reference those exclusions and you see they're taking out things that are most volatile with the result of lowering the CPI. Had those three exclusions remained in place, CPI would likely have increased .1 or .2 more and your bet would have been correct.
Message was edited by: Tiggity®
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Hall of Famer [22451]
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just to back myself up
May 15, 2024, 11:58 AM
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in addition to being a degenerate, I bet CPI would follow PPI.
and this is why I quit a few years ago. can't be in unless you're all in, with all the tools, watching tape...all day every day.
to make it short and sweet, this is a pure fed driven market. moreso than normal. bad news is good news, any hint of dovishness sends markets screaming, first sign of a hawk feather and we tank until someone speaks to clean it up.
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Oculus Spirit [77014]
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My main position right now is in COIN
May 15, 2024, 11:31 AM
[ in reply to took a small position ] |
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W the BTC halving there will be a bull run on BTC historically. So bought COIN as it will run with it. Up about 12% right now but waiting for about 25%-30% gains
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Oculus Spirit [81949]
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Holy crap. BTC went up $3419 today.***
May 15, 2024, 1:07 PM
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All-TigerNet [12405]
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Oculus Spirit [81949]
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I thought she was just joking about how dumb he is.
May 16, 2024, 10:43 AM
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Then he started talking.
"SHE NOT WRONG"
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All-In [34923]
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Kinda like crime numbers...New York & Chiraq have been excluded***
May 15, 2024, 1:26 PM
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Oculus Spirit [98324]
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All-In [32072]
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Because you're not correct about the exclusions...
May 16, 2024, 10:41 AM
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meaning the stopping of those series doesn't mean that item isn't measured any longer. See other post below.
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Hall of Famer [24750]
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Re: +254. Thanks coffee!!!!!!
May 16, 2024, 7:09 AM
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CPI is a political number. It's not the preferred inflation measure used by the Fed Reserve.
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All-In [32072]
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Sorry, but that is simply wrong...
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May 16, 2024, 10:40 AM
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CPI didn't drop coffee from the measurement, it stopped measuring the specific index for the big cans of coffee because it's not the way coffee is primarily purchased now. It still has other coffee measures that account for pods, kurig, small cans, etc...
Go to this release and search for coffee and then tell me coffee isn't included in CPI now.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm#cpipress6.f.5
Hint...they dropped coffee series 717312 because they have coffee series 717311 "Coffee, 100%, Ground Roast, All Sizes (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average"
You continue to post on this topic and you seem to just be parroting what you're hearing from less than educated sources. You type 20 minute posts...maybe take 2 minutes to check the data?
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Oculus Spirit [86925]
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Flow be like
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May 16, 2024, 10:43 AM
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All-In [48265]
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Pun intended?***
May 16, 2024, 11:21 AM
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Heisman Winner [106771]
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All-In [34344]
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All-In [32072]
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I heard it from 3 different sources yesterday/this morning...
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May 16, 2024, 11:14 AM
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2 seconds of digging and it's clear coffee wasn't left off of CPI.
It's a shining example of what "news" and "information" has become and how seemingly informed people are so easily manipulated.
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