All-In [30593]
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Posts: 28685
Joined: 8/17/05
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You don't have to open this...
Jun 5, 2012, 3:25 PM
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If you just did... then don't complain. Realignment is fluid until the ink dries. Things agreed on yesterday, may not be tomorrow. We'll see how it plays out...
Let's see if we can piece some things together and answer some questions. I'll try and do most of this in order, and give some thoughts and questions to ponder at the end.
1. Clemson and FSU have not been happy with the ACC for quite a while. Internally, there were meetings between the 2 about how to force the ACC's hand into showing more loyalty to it's top 2 football schools. The ACC made two strategically bad decisions that hurt both... they invited Pitt/Cuse over WVU and they went to the 9 game conf. schedule. Both CU and FSU were united in being opposed to the 9 game schedule and both wanted WVU.
2. The Big XII never intended to stay at 10 teams. Given the money involved, and the way the championship was heading, getting back to at least 12 has always been the goal.
3. Intermediaries between CU/FSU and the Big XII began talks late last year. I'll let you figure that out. I'm not giving that out.
4. The entire time, neither CU nor FSU "want" to leave the ACC. The details of the ACC contract begin to leak, and it's pretty bad. In a last ditch effort, CU and FSU ask the ACC to allow them to keep 50% of thier bowl revenue, as opposed to the current model. The ACC refuses.
5. By this time, talks are well underway with the Big XII, via intermediaries, and the ACC's unwillingness to support CU and FSU are seen as the "last straw".
6. In the meantime, the Big XII and SEC know what is coming down the pipe with the "plus 1 model", and they know the benefits of relegating the ACC to "non-existent". They announce the "Champions Bowl". They do not announce many details, b/c they are bluffing the ACC into uneasiness. It works. The TV deal, combined with rumors of CU/FSU, combined with the announcement of the SEC/BigXII working together causes ACC schools to get on the phones to other conferences. The dismembering of the ACC has begun.
7. The "Champions Bowl", combined with the existing alliance of Pac12/B1G, furthers speculation of the four team playoff and ACC being left out.
8. CU's BOT meets to discuss "tuition". "Tuition" equals Big XII. An argument is presented on both sides, and it's pretty intense. In the end, the CUBOT realizes there is only "one choice". Wilkins comments after obviously leave the door open.
9. The Big XII meetings commence. Outwardly, denials, happy at 10, no desire to expand. Inwardly, CU and FSU are both "very much involved" in the meetings, and I don't mean just being discussed. Again, I will have to leave it at that.
10. Calculated leaks begin to take place heading up to June 15 (Bowlsby takes over), June 20 (BCS meetings), and Aug. 15 (last day for team to withdraw from ACC for the year). Example: Forbes article
- When will things go down officially?
Could be anytime after June 15. I doubt it happens before the BCS meetings. Although, keep in mind what comes out of Tally could force Clemson's hand.
- Anything Dodds at UT says is on purpose to throw the media off and make it not look like they're "poaching".
- I don't see the Big XII going past 12 teams right now unless ND is involved. They will make thier intentions known to the Big XII shortly, but they will likely want to join in Olympic sports first, and football later (NBC contract)
- UM and GT have been told "no thanks right now". That could change with ND though (at least for GT).
- Word is leaking out if you ask in the right places, even around Clemson.
- Divisional alignments have already begun to be discussed with a 12 team Big XII that includes both CU and FSU.
- $24 - $27 mil, per team, including the BigXII championship game, are the numbers being thrown around. This does not include the Champions Bowl.
- As the details of the ACC's TV deals, including Raycom, are leaked... the ACC may not have much room for legal posturing. As a matter of fact, CU and FSU may have a case for damages (or no exit fee at the least).
- Why would the Big XII and SEC announce their "alignment" when they did? It's all about timing. No ACC means stronger SEC and Big XII and more opportuntity for money.
- As more teams WITH VALUE are added, TV contracts are redone... so don't say "that just means they split it 12 or 14 ways now".
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