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CU Guru [1799]
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This post is gonna hurt a bit.....
Sep 20, 2012, 2:30 PM
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There is no use getting upset because no one is giving us a chance. The reality is that we are 14 point underdogs. In the past 20 years more 14 point dogs have lost by 25 + than have won the game outright. So, statistically speaking, Clemson has a better chance of losing by 25 than winning the game outright. That is why we are the only ones who believe in Clemson. Our backs are up against the wall like never before in Dabo's tenure. Time to see what this team is made of.
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All-In [30593]
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We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006...
Sep 20, 2012, 2:33 PM
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And suddenly we're 14 point dogs when we are defending ACC Champs and ranked 10th in the country.
hmmmmm..
Is there shame in losing in Tally... absolutely not. But you have to admit the line makes no sense. And don't give me that "poor defense" crap.
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Oculus Spirit [94332]
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Re: We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006...
Sep 20, 2012, 2:36 PM
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You know better than argue with a woman. Turn in your card.
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All-In [30593]
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agreed, but if that was the requirement for losing your card
Sep 20, 2012, 2:37 PM
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I would have lost it a long time ago due to arguments with dsp
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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better than what you lost to gwp...
Sep 20, 2012, 2:52 PM
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All-In [30593]
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he didn't show you the video, did he?***
Sep 20, 2012, 3:39 PM
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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nah, no way...
Sep 20, 2012, 3:46 PM
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not after the cutigerdave one.
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All-In [37023]
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Associate AD [813]
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The Road game makes a big difference...
Sep 20, 2012, 2:50 PM
[ in reply to We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006... ] |
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Last year, when we had them at home w/out their #1 QB we won by 5. I would say our home field was huge in overcoming some of the mistakes we made and is why we ONLY won by 5...We shoulda/coulda won by 14 last year.
But in 2011...
We scored 24.4 points per game on the road. Remove the 56 at Maryland and it was 16.5
We gave up 30 points per game on the road. Remove the Maryland 46 and it was 26 per game...
At home, we scored 36.7 points per game. We gave up 25.7 points per game at home.
That is around a 16 point swing from home to away!
These stats paired with FSU's explosive start on both sides of the ball averaging 59-1 in just 11 quarters (albeit against cupcakes) is why we go in such a 'dog'.
While I believe we can win Saturday, it is understandable why so many believe we can't.
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All-In [49613]
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It's understandable ... but immaterial
Sep 20, 2012, 2:52 PM
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It only matters that our guys believe it.
And they do.
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CU Medallion [54234]
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110%er [5630]
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York, you are too intelligent to not understand what a Vegas
Sep 20, 2012, 2:52 PM
[ in reply to We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006... ] |
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line is all about.
When you say the line doesn't make sense, I respond how so??
Given that a line is NOT a prediction of the outcome but rather a mechanism for ensuring equal bets on both sides... how does the line not make sense?
It also appears that it has moved in FSU's favor most of the week suggesting that despite the line most of the betting public was willing to still put money on FSU to cover... thus far anyway.
Everyone that bets on FSU might lose. In which case, the other half of the people that bet (taking the points) will win.
And who else wins?? Vegas... almost every stinking time.
The line makes perfect sense. What doesn't make sense to you is how many people in the general public were still betting on FSU despite the line. I too am surprised that the line didn't come down as the week has progressed due to people putting money on Clemson.
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CU Guru [1799]
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On some games they have NO desire to get equal bets.
Sep 20, 2012, 3:03 PM
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When an unranked team is only getting 4 or 5 points from a top 5 team Vegas KNOWS that underdog is going to cover.
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110%er [5630]
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If Vegas was not interested getting equal bets on each side
Sep 20, 2012, 3:15 PM
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of a spread, or if they feared they COULDN'T get equal bets on each side of a spread... then they will just take the spread off the board entirely.
If there is a spread bet offered, that inherently suggests they are looking for equal bets on both sides... that is WHY betting lines fluctuate... to even out the betting.
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All-In [30593]
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exactly...
Sep 20, 2012, 3:17 PM
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thanks for correcting me... you're right, I should have said that it doesn't make sense that it hasn't come down...
Orange colored glasses aside... hard to understand
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110%er [5630]
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Lord knows I don't where orange colored glasses...
Sep 20, 2012, 3:20 PM
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and I too thought the line would back up some.
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All-In [30593]
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110%er [5630]
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Correct. I am saying I am surprised more people
Sep 20, 2012, 3:16 PM
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haven't put money on the tigers... enough to move the line south a little more.
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CU Medallion [55857]
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Re: York, you are too intelligent to not understand what a Vegas
Sep 22, 2012, 7:17 AM
[ in reply to York, you are too intelligent to not understand what a Vegas ] |
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Vegas is in the business to always win. Their lively hood depends on it. Like you've said, Vegas fixes the line to get the betting across the board even or as close to even as they possibly can. They actually make their money from the %age they charge for taking your bet. If they was to leave the line the same from start to finish. And the betting was one sided, they would be out of business the first weekend. That is the very reason the line will always adjust for even betting on both sides. If folks will take notice that when the line makes a big change. The bets have gotten way one sided, and Vegas will manipulate the line back to even betting across the board. Vegas never loses!!!
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All-In [40975]
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so what if the line is FSU minus 12
Sep 22, 2012, 7:45 AM
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and everyone bets on FSU giving Clemson 12 points
They move the line to 14 that's enough points so everyone now bets on Clemson taking 14 points.
The bets are perfect now 50% on FSU and 50% on Clemson
Final score fsu 23 CU 10
Everyone wins! Vegas loses 100% of the bets
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CU Guru [1799]
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I agree 100% that the line looks funny. Thats what scares me
Sep 20, 2012, 3:00 PM
[ in reply to We haven't been 14 pt. dogs to anyone since 2006... ] |
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#8 Mich. vs. #2 Bama, 14 point line looked high. Last year #5 Clemson -4. vs unranked G.T. See a pattern? When the bet looks too good to be true it is. When I saw this line come out I knew Vegas thought FSU would win big.
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110%er [6109]
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: This post is gonna hurt a bit.....
Sep 20, 2012, 2:34 PM
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au contraire. It's FSU that has everything to prove. We have very little to prove. SO kicking some Noles around is gonna be sweet.
take the points and bet a lot.
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All-In [30593]
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just looking at this from a college football fan perspective
Sep 20, 2012, 2:35 PM
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I don't think I've ever seen a team with more pressure on them to "prove" something than what has been put on FSU this week.
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All-In [37023]
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backs against the wall??????
Sep 20, 2012, 2:35 PM
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this is an opportunity to show the world!!!
We have nothing to lose. No one is counting on us winning so when we go in there nad whip the crap out of FSU this weekend everyone will know these TIGERS are for real!!!
14 points underdogs based on FSU playing Wren, Pendleton, and Travelers Rest!!
I am not worried about 14 point underdogs. When we are not favored we are at our best!
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CU Medallion [55857]
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Re: backs against the wall??????
Sep 20, 2012, 2:45 PM
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would love to see us win this by 16 to 18 points. Nothing better than making the odds makers look like dumb a$$es also....
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CU Medallion [62979]
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Did this post hurt?
Sep 20, 2012, 3:14 PM
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Brilliant as always Pat! However, I'm not really all that
Sep 20, 2012, 3:57 PM
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trusting to begin with, so if you wouldn't mind, can you please provide me with a citation that says "In the past 20 years more 14 point dogs have lost by 25+ than have won the game outright..." I would also like to see some backup of your analysis that Clemson has a better chance of losing by 25 than winning the game outright.
Thanks in advance!
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All-In [37023]
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OK now you've done it
Sep 20, 2012, 3:59 PM
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you confused him/her/it!!
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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I have a feeling that merely waking up in the morning
Sep 20, 2012, 4:00 PM
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confuses him/her/it
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CU Guru [1692]
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Replies: 30
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