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Replies: 11
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Oculus Spirit [98212]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65175
Joined: 7/13/02
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+331. Thanks higher jobless claims?
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May 9, 2024, 4:07 PM
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Uhh....yeah.
"Markets got a boost after weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected."
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Orange Blooded [4924]
TigerPulse: 99%
Posts: 4946
Joined: 1/8/19
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Re: +331. Thanks higher jobless claims?
May 9, 2024, 4:36 PM
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We've reached the bizarro world reality where bad economic news, with the exception of bad inflation news, results in the market going up.
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Orange Blooded [2187]
TigerPulse: 93%
Posts: 2053
Joined: 1/7/00
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We didn't get "bad economic news"....
May 9, 2024, 10:02 PM
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We added 175,000 jobs. This was lower than expected. But we've averaged 242K over the last three months. The jobs report was soon as a slight softening, which increases the chances that the FED will lower rates later this year.
The jobs report was mostly a nothing burger otherwise.
You guys that want to read the apocalypse into everything are hilarious.
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Legend [17989]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 16818
Joined: 9/1/12
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Traders wanted a reason to keep the rebound going
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May 9, 2024, 4:48 PM
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Jobless claims rising could mean softening labor market leading to lower wage growth leading to less demand for goods leading to interest rates moving down sooner than the recent comments from Fed observers indicate?
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All-In [34181]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 33720
Joined: 9/13/99
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Yep. Employers have been struggling to find new labor
May 9, 2024, 4:52 PM
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at least in my neck of the woods.
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Oculus Spirit [98212]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65175
Joined: 7/13/02
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Guy building our dock is due to start this month, after a year wait.
1
May 9, 2024, 5:34 PM
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He can't find workers.
The labor shortages are still around, for some odd reason. Everyone complains of not having enough labor. We have 8.8 million open jobs currently with 3.9% unemployment, and 62.7% LPR. Something isn't adding up. Mainly the unemployment rate.
But the labor shortages have not disappeared and have only marginally improved, in some areas.
https://www.google.com/search?q=us+labor+shortage&sca_esv=35a3d0f5617f2f1a&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS917US917&biw=1650&bih=771&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWIK4zwXw5q8k7wi3h8pHmUkdQmvruA:1715289174915&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjN-9OPvoGGAxUyRjABHaorCawQ0pQJegQIARAI
Ok, this is because of BidenTrumpPelosiDemsPubsLibsNeocons, etc. right?
Well, let's look around the world.....
https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+labor+shortage&sca_esv=35a3d0f5617f2f1a&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS917US917&biw=1650&bih=771&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWIJZnU7Rv5ofj5wE9hFVe1g_OE5PVg%3A1715289176510&ei=WDw9ZuzUHpiNwbkP-sGquAc&ved=0ahUKEwjs4LWQvoGGAxWYRjABHfqgCncQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=uk+labor+shortage&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiEXVrIGxhYm9yIHNob3J0YWdlMgsQABiABBiRAhiKBTILEAAYgAQYkQIYigUyBhAAGAcYHjIEEAAYHjIEEAAYHjIGEAAYCBgeMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTILEAAYgAQYhgMYigVIsg1QjglY6wtwAHgAkAEAmAF-oAGPBKoBAzEuNLgBA8gBAPgBAZgCBaACogTCAgoQABiABBhDGIoFwgIFEAAYgATCAggQABgHGAgYHsICBhAAGAUYHsICDRAAGIAEGLEDGIMBGA3CAgcQABiABBgNwgIIEAAYgAQYogSYAwCIBgGSBwMxLjSgB5Uh&sclient=gws-wiz-news
https://www.google.com/search?q=greece+labor+shortage&sca_esv=35a3d0f5617f2f1a&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS917US917&biw=1650&bih=771&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWIKd70_tFmCv6WypNxkaZ0Q4CWaWEA%3A1715289230895&ei=jjw9ZvGPNvCxwt0PiNuT2Ac&ved=0ahUKEwjxjq2qvoGGAxXwmLAFHYjtBHsQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=greece+labor+shortage&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiFWdyZWVjZSBsYWJvciBzaG9ydGFnZTIFEAAYgAQyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYogQyCBAAGIAEGKIEMggQABiABBiiBDIIEAAYgAQYogRI_iNQsRhYlyBwAHgAkAEAmAGbAaAB5QeqAQM0LjW4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgigAusGwgIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBcICBBAAGB7CAgYQABgIGB7CAgYQABgHGB7CAg0QABiABBixAxiDARgNwgIHEAAYgAQYDZgDAIgGAZIHAzMuNaAHnTc&sclient=gws-wiz-news
https://www.google.com/search?q=russia+labor+shortage&sca_esv=35a3d0f5617f2f1a&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS917US917&biw=1650&bih=771&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWILpnFLvAutCnAkB1vpkjpMC-K11dw%3A1715289303859&ei=1zw9ZvXtM_aQwbkP9bSIsAU&ved=0ahUKEwi1tZLNvoGGAxV2SDABHXUaAlYQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=russia+labor+shortage&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiFXJ1c3NpYSBsYWJvciBzaG9ydGFnZTIFEAAYgAQyCBAAGAUYBxgeMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYogQyCBAAGIAEGKIEMggQABiABBiiBEiBE1DRCFivEXAAeACQAQCYAZwBoAGxB6oBAzUuNLgBA8gBAPgBAZgCCKACxQbCAgQQABgewgINEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEYDcICBxAAGIAEGA3CAgYQABgHGB6YAwCIBgGSBwM0LjSgB_M-&sclient=gws-wiz-news
https://www.google.com/search?q=korea+labor+shortage&sca_esv=35a3d0f5617f2f1a&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS917US917&biw=1650&bih=771&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWIITdrznFmw-xxYRFJdUosdflg9mXw%3A1715289367147&ei=Fz09Zuy6CP2TwbkP14Cl2AU&ved=0ahUKEwisoqnrvoGGAxX9STABHVdACVsQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=korea+labor+shortage&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiFGtvcmVhIGxhYm9yIHNob3J0YWdlMgUQABiABDIGEAAYBRgeMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMggQABiABBiiBDIIEAAYgAQYogRI_RVQ1wdYzhFwAHgAkAEAmAGMAaABqAaqAQM1LjO4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgegAt0FwgIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBcICCBAAGAUYBxgewgINEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEYDcICBxAAGIAEGA2YAwCIBgGSBwM0LjOgB7s0&sclient=gws-wiz-news
https://www.google.com/search?q=germany+labor+shortage&sca_esv=35a3d0f5617f2f1a&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS917US917&biw=1650&bih=771&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWILIlqIUc0G4JiI5xuJLIakD8y4nlQ%3A1715289428734&ei=VD09ZquMLLmQwbkP77-ESA&ved=0ahUKEwirhtiIv4GGAxU5SDABHe8fAQkQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=germany+labor+shortage&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiFmdlcm1hbnkgbGFib3Igc2hvcnRhZ2UyChAAGIAEGEMYigUyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIGEAAYBxgeMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYogQyCBAAGIAEGKIESJgSUIELWIELcAB4AJABAJgBb6ABtwGqAQMxLjG4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgKgAr4BmAMAiAYBkgcDMS4xoAeZDQ&sclient=gws-wiz-news
I can go on and on and on.
Labor shortages are a common problem, worldwide. Inflation is a common problem, worldwide. US is doing better than most lowering it and it's still not back to normal levels.
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Orange Blooded [2187]
TigerPulse: 93%
Posts: 2053
Joined: 1/7/00
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The US economy is in good shape....
May 9, 2024, 10:14 PM
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First, the 3.9% number, which is 27 months in a row of below 4% unemployment is extremely strong. Period.
Wage growth has outpaced inflation, so workers are not losing ground in ability to pay for stuff.
We're at 80.8% prime age (25-54) employment to population ratio, which is the highest we've been in about 23 years.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060
U-6 unemployment, which includes underemployed and unemployed together, is at 7.4%, which is very low and on par with some of our best numbers over the last few decades.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE
Job Openings shot up after the pandemic, and having been coming down, which is expected:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
AND, underlying inflation is slightly above the FED's target, coming in around 2.6% (NYFED multivariate core trend) and 2.8% (Atlanta FED core PCE). These are very common metrics that the FED looks at and talks about when setting policy. We've mostly conquered inflation (which was from supply shocks, not from Biden's spending) without any recession at all.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/mct#--:mct-inflation:trend-inflation
https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/underlying-inflation-dashboard
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Hall of Famer [20598]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11745
Joined: 10/15/02
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Re: Guy building our dock is due to start this month, after a year wait.
May 10, 2024, 12:19 PM
[ in reply to Guy building our dock is due to start this month, after a year wait. ] |
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Demographics are collapsing all over the world.
We're not immune, we're just as much as 50 years behind the others...and well, people still immigrate here, which is (often) a very good thing, loathe as many are to admit it. South Korea's birthrate is below 0.65 and headed for 0.5 within the decade, and China's isn't much better and is plummeting even faster than South Korea's. Both are ethnically homogenous...and have almost zero immigration. There's no saving either of them. Russia's not much better, which is why they're swiping and Russianizing (is that even a word?) every Ukrainian kid they can lay hands on.
And Gen Z is tiny...and by and large, they're not having sex or dating. But on the bright side, they are very good X-Box players.
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Orange Blooded [4161]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 4444
Joined: 10/6/03
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Yeah, thats some real circular logic right there
May 9, 2024, 5:15 PM
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It sounds like a journalist’s ignorant attempt trying to explain something that’s nothing more than a random walk
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Oculus Spirit [98212]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 65175
Joined: 7/13/02
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News that impacts debt serviceability impacts the markets more than earnings.
May 9, 2024, 5:36 PM
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Shouldn't be that way, but it is.
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All-In [25106]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 43093
Joined: 7/31/10
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I think that's a reflection on JUST HOW DEEP debt is trending...***
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May 9, 2024, 5:51 PM
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Hall of Famer [22357]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 8801
Joined: 9/11/11
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bad news is good news these days
May 10, 2024, 12:05 PM
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from the market's perspective.
all eyes on JPow.
Brings me back to when I started trading...circa 2012 and 2013.
this is the benefit of having a centrally planned economy.
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