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110%er [9151]
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SC GOP Primary Polls - Haley vs Trump
Jan 26, 2024, 12:14 PM
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We've been hearing about how Haley is getting killed by Trump in SC in all the polls so far, and that's true. But I did a little digging on this internet thingy I've been hearing so much about and found this:
* The last 2 polls were done on Jan 17-18 - Trump led Haley 68% to 28% in the more recent of the 2
* Both polls were sponsored by a little organization called Make America Great Again, Inc. Not sure if they're independent or not. Hard to tell.
* Ron DeSantis, dropped out of the race on Jan 21, so these polls did not take that into account
* The NH Primary was on Jan 23, so these polls did not take those results into account
* There were 3 other polls - one each in Nov, Dec and early Jan - when most of the major GOP candidates were still in the race and are factored in (2 were independently sponsored and 1 was GOP sponsored)
* Nov 12-14 there were 2 polls done, both also sponsored by Make America Great Again, Inc.
So - to summarize:
* There have been ZERO polls done for Trump vs Haley in SC since the NH primary
* There have been ZERO polls done for Trump vs Haley in SC since the last of the other GOP candidates dropped out.
* With all the other GOP challengers but Haley out, this is a brand new race and is not comparable to any of the other polls previously done
Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/
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All-In [46961]
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Latest polls still have Trump +63 and +45***
Jan 26, 2024, 12:16 PM
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110%er [9151]
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Re: Latest polls still have Trump +63 and +45***
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Jan 26, 2024, 12:27 PM
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Yes, and they were commissioned by the Trump campaign and conducted before DeSantis dropped out and before the NH primary. Did you even read my post?
No polling has been done since all the other challengers left the field and since the NH primary. Big distinction.
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110%er [7313]
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Re: Latest polls still have Trump +63 and +45***
Jan 27, 2024, 12:11 AM
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Enjoy your fantasy. You’ve got about a month of happy dreams about President Haley.
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All-TigerNet [13349]
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One of these candidates treated Clemson FB to a McDonalds feast for the ages
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Jan 26, 2024, 12:16 PM
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And the other didn't.
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CU Guru [1634]
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Re: One of these candidates treated Clemson FB to a McDonalds feast for the ages
Jan 26, 2024, 10:55 PM
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I thought it was a Wendy’s feast.
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Hall of Famer [22445]
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The voter profile of the NH primary is much different than the SC voter profile.
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Jan 26, 2024, 12:35 PM
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The NH profile was almost 50-50 Republican-Independent. Far fewer Independents in SC and I doubt that Democrats will vote in the GOP primary at the same rate of Independents in NH.
Trump won 75% of the Republican vote in NH and I would expect him to approach those numbers in SC.
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110%er [9106]
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Re: SC GOP Primary Polls - Haley vs Trump
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Jan 26, 2024, 6:38 PM
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haley wont win one state
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CU Guru [1634]
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Re: SC GOP Primary Polls - Haley vs Trump
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Jan 26, 2024, 10:56 PM
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Will she win one more than five counties in SC?
I say no way.
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Standout [336]
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Its very telling how the Republican Party has contorted
Jan 26, 2024, 11:20 PM
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themselves into hating Haley, just because she dare stand up to their lord and savior. Just shows you how the party has absolutely been taking over and consumed by MAGA and Trump. Sad what the party has become.
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110%er [7313]
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Re: Its very telling how the Republican Party has contorted
Jan 27, 2024, 12:30 AM
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I didn’t know that much about Haley until the pre-primary season had begun.
She has a load of baggage that keeps on growing.
As for campaign tactics, she’s played two identity politics cards. Woman and (laughably stupid) ‘woman of color.’
Got some Boeing & defense contractor money in her pocket after leaving the UN Ambassador job in Trump admin #1, and then couldn’t help herself and did a Goodfellas esque ostentatious spend on a seven figure home on Kiawah. Another ‘regular person’ … no crony capitalist windfall to see here.
First Amendment isn’t of importance to her. Witness her bird brained policy suggestion that all users of the internet & social media must identify themselves. Fortunate for America that Bird Brain wasn’t among the founding fathers; Franklin and Adams wrote anonymous articles for public consumption because of concern that the English govt would prosecute their speech that was antithetical to The Crown’s policies. Franklin and Adam’s, among others of our founding fathers, recognized the potential for tyranny by any govt … including America’s govt; therefore, the First Amendment was born to protect citizens from governmental activities that would lead to a suppression of free speech.
Nikki the Frontrunner was for open southern border before she (very recently) became opposed to open borders.
South Carolinians don’t go for this kind of thing. Nikki might well stay in the race, however, because this country’s TDS moneyed establishment keep giving her money.
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All-TigerNet [12329]
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Haley is trying to build a coalition of establishment Republicans, Independents,
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Jan 27, 2024, 12:06 AM
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and Democrats. She's getting less than 25% of the real Republican vote and any of her numbers above that are from either Independents and Democrats that are voting in the Republican Primary.
Why any State (or Party) allows "open primaries" where non-Party affiliated voters can vote in a particular Party's primary is beyond me. But a lot of States allow it and Nikki somehow thinks she can garner the Republican Party nomination without capturing a clear majority of Republican base votes through this open primary scheme. Even if Nikki succeeded (which she won't) - too many in the Republican base would be turned off by her scheming and it would doom her in the General Election.
It is a fact that in New Hampshire many voters, who have no intention of voting for any Republican in the general election, did in fact vote for Nikki Haley in the Primary as simply an anti-Trump vote. Here are two such New Hampshire primary voters:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1749968724575273349
https://twitter.com/i/status/1749958365764337836
If Nikki Haley thinks she can win the Republican nomination by ignoring the will of the majority of Republican base voters (i.e. the Republican base and/or folks who will not vote for the Democrats under any circumstances) then she is delusional. Maybe she is already eying 2028 and she's just hanging around as a means to bank some campaign donations for the future??
Nikki is really courting a lot of establishment weasels and outside donors. No telling the "behind the door" promises she is making to get all this cash.... Dancing with these people does nothing to endear Haley to the majority of Republican voters and if she keeps hitching her wagon to these folks it may do serious damage to her Republican Party political future beyond 2024...
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110%er [7313]
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Re: Haley is trying to build a coalition of establishment Republicans, Independents,
Jan 27, 2024, 12:41 AM
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I agree with you.
I think that Nikki’s political future will be as a professional shill for Uniparty political interests. Her compensation will be as a salaried guest on cable news shows that are in a steady condition of marketplace decline.
However, she will have no shot at electoral success in either the Republican or Democrat party moving forward, and therefore her ability to extract money from big money donors / company’s that buy political favors via donations to promising politicians will no longer exist. Her days for getting big money from the big donors will soon come to an end.
Nikki’s advisors are either stupid, or they couldn’t get Nikki to follow their advice. Get out the butter and jelly, the toast is just about ready.
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Hall of Famer [20591]
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Re: Haley is trying to build a coalition of establishment Republicans, Independents,
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Jan 27, 2024, 4:02 PM
[ in reply to Haley is trying to build a coalition of establishment Republicans, Independents, ] |
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My perception is that Haley is pre-emptively moving to the middle. There's two reasons for that, both strategic, and neither involves "winning" the GOP primary.
No Labels wants her and can get her on the ballot in all 50 states as an independent. The other possibility is that she hangs around and gives Donald a chance to self-destruct. I personally think that's the way to bet andthere is just about zero chance Donald makes it to the election. If he isn't thrown off the ballot or convicted and in jail by then, I think the Ukrainians (or one of about fifty other world actors with motive) will just straight-up whack him. Donald's utterly oblivious to how many enemies he makes...along with the fact that they can make moves and break rules themselves if they have to. And I think they will.
Either way, Donald's going to have to run just an astounding obstacle course this next year, and he can't even slip once. His track record thus far is not exactly encouraging about his chances in an actual courtroom.
If push comes to shove and Trump's convicted, Haley's our next president. Donald will throw his support to her because he has to...Biden certainly won't pardon him and Haley will.
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Orange Blooded [3582]
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Standout [336]
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The rationale for having a party primary open to
Jan 28, 2024, 9:07 AM
[ in reply to Haley is trying to build a coalition of establishment Republicans, Independents, ] |
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independents is that independents have an inherent stake in who the nominee in each party is. If we were to move away from the two party system then barring them from voting in party primaries makes sense, but until then, as Americans they should get a say in who the nominees are.
You may or may not agree with that, but that’s the rationale for it.
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