Let's talk Russia, shall we?

Russia in contrast has bulk. Petroleum, pig iron, fertilizers, food production...take that off the market and it's a massively bigger hit to the global economy than China has the capability of putting on us. This also means Russia can keep itself fed and keep the lights on; China has no long-range navy, which means they can be easily blockaded. For them, that's fatal. They import something like 75% of their energy, 50% of their food...and worse, they also have to import massive amounts of potash fertilizer to support their domestic food production. China's soil is horrible. If they get cut off from the global market, their lights go out in six weeks and they're starving to death in six months. (Tops.)

China's in an interesting position, because they need the global market to survive...and we're the mall cop. If you own a store in a mall, you can't just shoot the mall cop and carry on business as usual. Because Russia is self-sustaining, they're under a lot less compulsion to play nice.

Oh, and Russia has 5,800 nukes. China has something like 410.

China's economy is also circling the drain. Check out pics of their "ghost cities." They've overbuilt to something to the tune of 60 million units, and almost their population's entire capital is tied up in these (worthless) housing units. You're a financial guy, you know better than anyone what that means. They're in the process of a housing market collapse that will make 2008 for us look like a rounding error. Evergrande filed for bankruptcy, what, a week ago?

So it's hard to say, honestly, which of the two is more dangerous. The reality is they're an Axis because they have to be.

RememberTheDanny

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Re: Oh, I'm quite aware of how long it takes to begin production

Aug 28, 2023, 10:04 PM [ in reply to Oh, I'm quite aware of how long it takes to begin production ]

There’s a lag variable in play here.

Govt land that has bee leased to private companies will not be developed if there are too many risk factors that make the ROI too hard to predict.

Let’s look at Alaska, where oil production has been steadily declining to the point where Alaska has fallen to ~ 4th place among oil producing states. (TX #1, followed by NM, ND, and then AK.)

Price of oil … expected to be stable or crash? (Who knows how long demand for gasoline will remain stable in light of politically influence that changes whenever the political party in charge also changes?)
Regulations which restrict the techniques to get the oil out of the ground?
Regulations which govern the amount of allowable spillage from the oil production process.
Regulations which constrain the means by which oil can be transported from the fields to the oil tanker ships.
Regulations which lead to the closure of West Coast USA refineries.
Foreign policy - will USA have consistently effective foreign policy so that use of Panama Canal remains ‘exempt’ from restrictions?
Taxes on produced oil, taxes on shipping. Are there big risks about increased taxes if admin goes from Republicans to Democrat?

(*). If the USA is to play a role as a geopolitical threat to Russia (as opposed to a military threat), then we need to take advantage of our withering giant in Alaska and to treat refining assets on the West Coast as national security assets.

Biden has taken advantage of the factors which were in place before his regime came to power. His energy policies have done nothing to establish the USA as a geopolitical competitor to Russia with respect to oil. His depletion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was for mid-term electoral ‘strategy’ purposes.

Instead of building us up to be an economic threat to Russia’s energy industry, we’ve been left to resort to a far more dangerous game of war via proxy.

Of all Biden’s foreign policy mistakes, his energy policy + military unpreparedness policy has got to be the worst.

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Re: Let's talk Russia, shall we?

Re: Let's talk Russia, shall we?

^ This.

Re: ^ This.

Re: Let's talk Russia, shall we?

Re: Let's talk Russia, shall we?

Six in one hand half a dozen in the other.

Re: Six in one hand half a dozen in the other.

I honestly can't understand your logic.

Re: I honestly can't understand your logic.

But what does this have to do with current policy?

Re: But what does this have to do with current policy?

We are too late to that party.

Re: We are too late to that party.

It’s where the

Re: It’s where the

Re: We are too late to that party.

I like his stuff but couple issues with this one

Re: I like his stuff but couple issues with this one

Fair point. In my admittedly non-expert base of knowledge,

Trump was doing this.

Does it bother you

Does it bother you that neither level is high enough?***

But I thought our energy policy was wonderful under the

Trump ended many regulations

Oh, I'm quite aware of how long it takes to begin production

Re: Oh, I'm quite aware of how long it takes to begin production

It's like a grown adult kicking a toddler.***

Re: Oh, I'm quite aware of how long it takes to begin production

Not sure I understand***

Re: Not sure I understand***

Something, something, a shidd loada Nukes?***

Re: Let's talk Russia, shall we?

Re: Let's talk Russia, shall we?

Pawacoot reads Cyrillic?***

I mean, look at him. Doesn't he seem like he would?***

Re: I mean, look at him. Doesn't he seem like he would?***

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