Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Florida State projections |
Clemson’s grip on the Atlantic Division strengthens with each conference game and another opportunity awaits in Tallahassee.
The Tigers (6-0, 4-0 ACC) start the back side of regular-season action at Florida State (4-2, 2-2) Saturday night (7:30 p.m.) while playing the fourth of six divisional games (with a fifth in a row to come next week hosting currently unbeaten Syracuse). The Seminoles had a chance last week at NC State to make this weekend’s clash with Clemson even bigger -- and even knocked out Wolfpack QB Devin Leary for a good chunk of the game, but a bad special teams play and a bad interception late helped doom that road division-victory bid. Here’s how the teams shape up through six games by the metrics: Efficiency ranks: Offense: | Defense | Special teams CU SP+ ranks ($) (13): 24 | 18 | 60 FSU SP+ ranks (33): 33 | 30 | 109 CU FPI ranks (6): 15 | 36 | 50 FSU FPI ranks (28): 16 | 59 | 44 CU FEI ranks (8): 27 | 11 | | 31 FSU FEI ranks (34): 28 | 44 | 39 – Few teams have scored with the efficiency that Clemson has this season and that’s guided a strong start on that side of the ball – despite some lulls here and there: Clemson has scored points on 90.7% of its drives that cross the opponent 40. Best rate in FBS. In the metrics above, Clemson has a top-25 offense nationally on average with the highest other marks on third down (13th; .500 conversion percentage), with scoring offense (18th; 39.3 PPG) and with red zone TD percentage offense (19th; .750). Florida State’s offense is pretty much in lockstep with Clemson’s by the metrics, but the scoring efficiency is the difference with the Seminoles holding a mid-tier 59th mark in scoring offense (31.3 PPG) and a No. 102 ranking in red zone offense guiding that (76%; 76th in red zone TD percentage, 62%). Against FBS opponents, FSU has scored 15 times in 22 red zone opportunities, while Clemson has converted all 32 times this season and 27 of them against FBS foes. The Seminoles meet a Clemson defense that's been mid-tier in red zone defense overall (66th) but stout in keeping teams out of the end zone (18th in red zone TD% allowed; 44%). Defensively, Florida State has had some solid games and some average efforts through injury issues, which has its comparisons to Clemson’s campaign defensively. The Tigers’ highest highs in grades are better than FSU’s to this point, although the figures versus shared opponents are similar (FSU: 1-2 record/21.3 PPG and 315.7 YPG allowed; Clemson: 3-0 record/20.3 PPG and 317 YPG allowed in regulation). Three Florida State players to watch 1. QB Jordan Travis - Travis is among the nation’s highest-rated QBs according to Pro Football Focus, with a No. 2 grade among starters (91.1) and an overall grade that’s fourth-best among FBS starters (91.1). Travis has improved with each campaign, from 2020 (69.7 overall grade/55.1 passer grade) to 2021 (85.2 overall/82.3 passer grade) to now. His big-time throw percentage is up nearly 2% season-to-season (7.1%) and he has one turnover-worthy play in 165 dropbacks. Travis has largely welcomed the blitz with a 91.1 grade there and six touchdown passes to two interceptions. His percentage of snaps under pressure is the lowest since he’s been in Tallahassee (35.8) and he’s averaging 7.3 yards per attempt with a 46.9% completion rate in that situation (For comparison, Clemson’s DJ Uiagalelei has completed 35% of his passes with 4.1 yards per pass under pressure even in an improved season). 2. WR Johnny Wilson - The 6-foot-7 target has the No. 3 run-block grade (87.8), No. 6 overall grade (84.1) and No. 14 receiving grade (82.1) nationally according to PFF. Wilson has 417 receiving yards on 21 receptions in 39 targets his way, with the majority of those snaps starting out wide this season (88.1%) – but he did line up in the slot nearly a third of the time at NC State (31.4%). Johnny Wilson's touchdown on the fade pattern was perhaps the play of the game. JOHNNY WILSON, ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! ? pic.twitter.com/Uk5UIghbGg 3. DE Jared Verse - Verse has vaulted from the FCS level to a Power 5 league transfer to a potential first-round NFL draft pick with his play this year, tallying four sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. No. 10 pass rush grade nationally (87.9). His biggest impact came before a knee injury at Louisville, however, with two sacks, another TFL and five QB hurries in the win over LSU. He has only one sack and two QB hurries since – still tallying six tackles for loss along the way, however. Sign m up for Jared Verse. ??? Odds Clemson -3.5; 51 over/under. Metrics predictions SP+ projection: Clemson 29-25 (59% Clemson projection) ESPN FPI: 72.7% Clemson projection TeamRankings*: 27-24 Clemson FEI: Clemson 32-23 (71.5% Clemson projection) ?WEEK 7 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS *In the above link as well. Analysis: The line is tight, almost unusually tight if only a cursory look is cast at how the teams have played this season, but the last time Clemson did play a team in this tier on the road, Wake Forest almost got them after closing as a 7.5-point underdog. That said, Clemson has covered the spread in the other three ACC matchups this year. Florida State has covered the number in 4-of-5 games with FBS opponents (all from Power 5), however, and won a game outright as an underdog in basically a road game with LSU in New Orleans, 24-23. The 3.5-point spread at this point and the projections all seem to be in line for a game in the single-digits margin-wise, with a turnover or special teams misplay possibly swinging the result one way or the other. But with some road experience in now, Clemson shouldn’t be intimidated by the atmosphere – and its best is better than FSU at its best in this matchup. Pick: Clemson -3.5. Remaining schedule power rankings 1. Notre Dame - Don’t look now but the Fighting Irish have won three in a row – coming off of a 28-20 win over No. 16 BYU at a neutral site – and are easily the top-rated team remaining on the schedule according to the metrics we track here…somewhere in the top-20 range on average. 2. Syracuse - Syracuse can clinch a first bowl berth since 2018 and move to 3-0 in ACC play heading into next week’s trip to Clemson if they can top NC State in the Dome as a slight favorite this week. 3. Florida State - In their last appearance in this particular ranking, the Seminoles have a chance to make a statement and Vegas obviously sees things going down to the wire. 4. Louisville - Louisville responded from going down 10-0 to a struggling Virginia team – in a game that reportedly had head coach Scott Satterfield’s job staked on a win – with a 34-7 scoring run, without the services of star dual-threat Malik Cunningham. 5. South Carolina - A good, double-digit road win for the Gamecocks moves them up the rankings here and there are metrics that are much higher on the Gamecocks than a team like Louisville (36th on SP+ compared to 60th for Louisville…higher than Syracuse as well there, who are 57th in the metric). 6. Miami - The Hurricanes moved the ball with their highest efficiency against an FBS foe this season, but they should’ve against a bad UNC defense and it wasn’t enough to avoid a third-straight loss this season.
It's scored TDs on 75% of RZ drives, up from 63% last year.
It's found the end zone on 89.5% of its goal-to-go drives, tops in ACC.
But his effort blocking on the drive paints a picture of just how impactful he is in multiple phases of the game. pic.twitter.com/PbXo3RZiPM
I guess I was already signed up. I'm forging my signature for another spot in the Verse Fan Club.
Far from 100%, w/ game winding down, Verse makes play to force Wake to go for FG . Good things will happen when your top players dictate your culture. pic.twitter.com/nYgxEnqsjj
Jared Verse gets his first SACK with the #Noles#NoleFamily | #KeepCLIMBing pic.twitter.com/EadZd6Uhjm
SATURDAY EVENING SLATE
Buy me a beer:?https://t.co/jBOZ2vloV3
CLEMSON @ FLORIDA STATE pic.twitter.com/96CVQmR8f0
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