Monday February 18, 2008

This is Fun!

Ths is Fun
Maybe this is what all the Tobacco Road fans have talked about for years. This basketball thing might be more fun than I thought. This winning thing and seeds thing are pretty cool.

If you have been in the league for over 50 years and you win at a place where you had won only ten times previously then it can be considered a landmark win.

When you sweep an opponent for the first time in eight years that too can be considered a landmark.

But when you lose a lead late in the game but comeback and pull out a road victory in the ACC despite everything going against you, then I know we are talking about a landmark win.

This Monday morning we could have been talking about another collapse late in a game in which Clemson had a chance to win. Instead we are talking about seedings for the ACC and NCAA tournaments. What a beautiful day in Tigertown!

When Sam Perry made what Oliver Purnell later called “the defensive play of the year” it helped spark the Tigers. When Demontez Stitt made a huge steal it continued momentum and when David Potter calmly stepped to the line and sank both free throws it probably ended NC State’s chances Saturday. The Tigers held State scoreless the final two and a half minutes of the game and jumped off of the NCAA bubble in the process. In the end, it was a great win on the road in the Atlantic Coast Conference and this program will take any of those they can grab.

On my radio show this morning I had Shaka Smart on for about 25 minutes and he made some interesting points. Coach Smart said this team had been in close games before and that experience paid off Saturday. He also mentioned the balance of this group. Smart says that the Tigers are getting contributions from different players on both ends of the floor. He mentioned Perry’s block, Stitt’s steal, Potter’s free throws, Booker inside play, etc. Clemson has turned into one of the most balanced teams in the league, so if a night where the shooting is down like it was on Saturday, they can still hurt you on other areas. Saturday night it was a lack of turnovers and a bunch of offensive rebounds that may have made the difference.

Bye Bye
There are tremendous advantages for being one of the top four seeds for the ACC tournament but the biggest is a day off. In the past many Clemson teams considered not participating in the play-in game as a bye but this is a different story. A team can still win the tournament coming out of the first round but a bye surely helps the odds considering the difficulty in playing four games in four days.

The Tigers are now tied for third in the ACC with Maryland at 7-4 in league play. Last night’s big upset of Duke by Wake Forest added the Deacons to the equation also. Duke and North Carolina have the inside track on the top two seeds so Clemson, Maryland and Wake Forest should be fighting for the other two spots.

In my opinion, Clemson has a better NCAA portfolio than the other two schools but Maryland has an easier schedule in terms of the ACC coming down the stretch. I also believe that Wake Forest has the toughest remaining schedule of the trio. All three schools have five remaining games in the league and all three have three road games and two home games.

Maryland has home games with Clemson and Virginia Tech and road games at Miami, Wake Forest and Virginia. Clemson’s home games are Miami and Virginia Tech with their road contests at Florida State, Georgia Tech and Maryland. Wake Forest is at home against Maryland and NC State and their road tilts are at North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.

The ACC tie breaker for two teams is head-to-head so the Clemson-Maryland game in College Park on March 2 becomes very important. If Clemson ends in a tie with Wake Forest the Tigers get the better seed because Clemson won the only game between the two schools. If Maryland and Wake Forest are in a two-way tie Maryland has the advantage now because the Terps defeated Wake earlier but the two schools meet again on February 28.

I have not been able to find the official three team tie-breaker but we can discuss that more when and if that scenario gets closer.

Also don’t forget that one of the other teams in the league can make a run from the middle of the pack. Virginia Tech is 5-6 but the Hokies are currently two full games out of the top four seeds and have lost three in a row. Miami is 4-6 but the Canes have won two consecutive games in the league.

Also, there is a scenario that Duke or UNC could drop a couple of games and fall in the ACC seedings but that is unlikely.

So what has to happen for the Tigers to get a bye in the first round of the tournament? Holding serve at home and defeating Miami and Virginia Tech in Littlejohn are almost a necessity. The Tigers can still do it with a home loss but Clemson should be favored in both remaining ACC home games. Clemson currently has seven ACC wins so those home wins would give the Tigers nine. One more additional road win would probably secure a top four seed with a 10-6 mark. Obviously, the Maryland game is the more difficult road game on paper but even that one is winnable and I am not sure Clemson would be underdogs tomorrow in Tallahassee or in a few weeks in Atlanta.

I know we are getting way ahead of ourselves but this is fun and this is also something we have not been able to do ion sometime so I say we embrace the seeds talk. In the past Clemson fans have looked like ticket brokers after the first round. I think Charlotte would look much nicer with an orange tint on the weekend of March 15-16th.

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