Tuesday July 06, 2010

The Magic Number

The Magic Number
I hope everyone had a great three day weekend. We had a radio show yesterday but I took the rest of the day off an enjoyed Lake Hartwell, so I am ready to jump head first into to football and football related topics for the next two months.

Last week I wrote a blog about some of the key stats that showed how successful Virginia Tech has been in recent seasons. Over the weekend I started looking at some numbers and stats to see which are vital in terms of Clemson’s success.

Obviously scoring defense is a huge stat and that number will need to come down from the 20.4 points per game the Tigers allowed last season.

Turnover margin is another key statistic and the Tigers were +6 last season which is above average.

Stopping the run appears to be one of the top five statistics to determine success and the Tigers gave up too many yards on the ground last year with a 152 mark so that number will need to improve.

And lastly, rushing yards per game is a big factor. Last season Clemson had an excellent season by averaging 170 yards per game on the ground.

I stumbled on a couple of interesting stats including one “Magic Number.” Clemson averaged 35 rushes per game last year which was up from 33 the previous season. We all know that teams that are winning the game usually run the ball more and the trailing team is forced to throw a little more often. Also the winning team views the running game as an opportunity to run out the clock and preserve the win.

The magic number for Clemson rushes per game seems to be 40. Clemson is 13-8 under Dabo in his first one-plus years as the head coach but the Tigers are 4-0 when they had 40 rushes in a game and 9-8 in those where the Tigers have less than 40 rushes.

I keep going back to the South Carolina game of 2008 as the key game for Dabo as the interim head coach. I think the 31-14 win was the one that got him the job at Clemson and in that key game Clemson ran the ball 47 times or 14 more times that the average for the season.

The situation was switched last season when South Carolina only averaged 33 carries per game but had 58 rushes against Clemson in their 34-17 win over the Tigers.

I preach about the commitment to the run continuously on my radio show and this blog but I do understand that you have to be able to have some success in order to fully commit to the run. No one is suggesting you have to try to run the ball all day when it obviously can’t work. Perhaps the best example of this was the Alabama or Nebraska games of 2008. The commitment to the run were not the problems, Terrence Cody and Ndamkong Suh were the problems. It did not matter how many times the Tigers tried to run the ball on those days. Against Alabama the Tigers had 14 carries for zero yards and against Nebraska they had 26 carries for 14 yards.

So you have to have some success to continue with the full commitment but often times I see teams that can run the ball well and still chose to get too cute and try to remain balanced. Often times some teams abandon the run too soon or put too much into the idea of balance. Why stop running the ball if the other team can’t stop you?

The other issue that will arise in 2010 is the loss of C.J. Spiller. Clemson got the ball to Spiller in a bunch of different ways last season so this offense will have to adjust to his absence in 2010.

Later this week I want to get into the offensive line, Andre Ellington, Jamie Harper and other items to examine in previewing the running game but today I just wanted to discuss the importance of establishing the run and staying committed to running the football.

There are several ways a team can run the ball today. Oregon averaged 42 carries per game and won the Pac-10 by rushing for 242 yards per game in the spread rushing attack. Virginia Tech has averaged more than 10 wins a season the last six years with a power running game. Last year the Hokies averaged 44 carries and 208 yards rushing per game with a lead blocker at fullback. Georgia Tech takes it to the extreme in their option attack that averaged 57 carries and 295 yards per game on the ground last season.

Those are three examples of three teams that use three different offenses to execute the same commitment to running the football. As a side note, those teams combined to go 31-9 last season.

Personnel is also a key. The two teams that played for the national title last year took two different approaches offensively. Alabama had inexperience with Greg McElroy at quarterback and two terrific running backs with Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, so the Tide ran the ball 43 times per game last season. Texas had Colt McCoy back at quarterback and averaged 37 carries per contest but threw it 540 times last season compared to 346 passes attempted by Alabama.

Clemson’s offense will be different this year if Tajh Boyd is under center compared to if Kyle Parker came back. But every quarterback who has ever played would prefer to have a strong running game to compliment his abilities.

The Tigers may see the number of carries go up for two other reasons in 2010. First, I doubt Clemson hits on as many big plays without Spiller. Therefore, longer drives may be needed. Also the field position will not be as good as it was with Spiller and Ford returning kicks. Again this mean more opportunities for longer, more sustained drives.

So when you go into each game in 2010 look at the number of rushes for each team, hope that the Tigers hit the magic number of 40 and continue the unbeaten trend.

The Brad Hughes All-State Insurance Agency

Prayer List
We have started a prayer list on the blog. Here are the guidelines:
*If you are offended by prayer or prayer lists then I apologize in advance. The blog is free and the prayer list will be on the bottom of the page so you don’t have to read it.
*If you would like to add someone to the list please e-mail me at mickeyplyler@hotmail.com
*If you want the reason for the prayer to be added to the name please specify in your e-mails.
*Please let me know when it is appropriate to take the person off of the prayer list

Those who need our prayers include:
Finn Brookover, RTG-Pawsitive Tiger, Mary-Louise Pawlowski (John's daughter), Jo Ann Bachman, Kenneth Bryant, Pruitt Martin, Got igers and his family, David Rowland, Leonard, Gillespie and his family, Jim S, Christine Hepfer, Daniel Rosborough, Amy Murphey, The Huffman family, Nancy Winkler, John Reeve, Ethel Southard, Vinnie Brock, Kaitlyn L, Susan Miller, Joyce Harley, Steve Proveaux, Jeffrey Greene, the Hutto family, Sherl Drawdy, Caleb Kennedy, Teresa O'Connor, Matt Jacobs,Perrin Seigler, Carole White Begley, Candee Massee, Lindsey Jordan, Sam Catoe, Tyler Felch, Steve Cato, the Nicolopulos family, Cason Palmer, Scott Jackson, "the Jacksonville, FL guys", Kim Sims, the Coyle familty, Ryleigh Tedder, Steve Lee, Richard Crawford, Kelly Trakas, Jimmy Moore, Steve Williams Jr, Steve Williams III, Kim Thomas, Reid Thomas, Sam Thomas, Linda Wiggs, Emily Claire Young, Dr. Wallace Honeycutt, Stacy Fowler, Kitty Bowers.