Monday April 27, 2009

The Magic Number

The Magic Number
In Major League Baseball the magic number is the number of wins by the first place team or additional losses by the rival team after which it is mathematically impossible for the rival team to capture the title in the remaining games.

For Clemson baseball the magic number can be replaced by the magical number. For the Tigers, 40 is the measuring stick each college baseball season.

In the years where Clemson wins 40 games before the NCAA tournament, the Tigers usually advance deep into the tournament. And in those years where the Tigers win 40 regular season games, Omaha becomes a very good possibility.

Currently the Tigers are 30-15 overall and 14-10 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Clemson has 11 regular season games remaining but there is little doubt the easier part of the schedule remains.

The Tigers have exams this week before hosting Maryland next Saturday-Monday. The Terps are tied for last in the league with an 8-14 conference mark and are 20-24 overall. Clemson has dominated Maryland at home including an amazing 51-1 mark against the Terps in Doug Kingsmore Stadium.

Clemson travels to Flour Field in the West End of Greenville on May 6 for a mid-week neutral site game against Furman. The Paladins are currently 19-22 overall and 7-14 in the Southern Conference. However Clemson has struggled against Furman winning only four of the last nine meetings between the two programs.

The final home weekend series will take place May 8-10 when the Tigers host UNC-Wilmington. The Seahawks are 22-17 overall and 8-7 in the Colonial Athletic Association.

Senior night in Tigertown will be May 12 as the Tigers host College of Charleston. The Cougars are 26-16 overall and 11-10 in the Southern Conference. Clemson is 20-0 against the College of Charleston.

The Tigers end the regular season with three games at NC State. The Wolfpack are 8-16 in the conference and 20-24 overall. NC State will be fighting to get into the ACC tournament and traditionally Clemson has not played well as of late in Raleigh. The Tigers are 36-35 at NC State and Clemson has not won a series in Raleigh since 2001. Clemson has not swept the Pack in Raleigh since 1995.

Of the 11 remaining regular season games seven are at home and one is on a neutral site. The remaining opponents are just 107-103 on the season with the College of Charleston and UNC-Wilmington the only two remaining schools with a winning record.

The only down side of the ease of the schedule is the RPI, which should go down over the final three weeks of the season. Currently Clemson is ranked seventh in the WarrenNolan.com RPI.

With 30 wins and 11 remaining games it would take a supreme effort to come away with 40 regular season wins. However Clemson will be guaranteed three games in the ACC tournament which will increase the chances of a 40-win season.

The dominant Clemson teams have won 40 in the regular season though. The Tigers last won 40 regular season games in 2006 when they won 43. That team won the ACC tournament, a regional and a super regional to advance to the College World Series.

In 2002, the Tigers won 44 regular season games in the regular season. That squad won the regional and super regional to again advance to Omaha.

The 2000 team won 42 regular season games and won the regional and super regional to advance to Omaha.

The 1998 team was the last Clemson squad to win 40 regular season games and not advance to Omaha. That year Clemson won 42 regular season games but fell apart lost two in the ACC tournament and won only one game in the regional it hosted before getting eliminated by Southern Cal.

In 1996 the Tigers won 43 regular season games and advanced to the College World Series. This was before the NCAA adopted a super regional format so Clemson advanced by winning a regional at home that season.

In 1995 Clemson won 42 regular season games, hosted a regional and advanced to Omaha.

In Jack Leggett’s first season, 1994, the Tigers won 51 regular season games and won the ACC tournament but did not advance out a regional they hosted.

So under Jack Leggett Clemson has won at least 40 regular season games six times and advanced to the College World Series four of those seasons including four of the last five times it happened.

Consistently Inconsistent
One constant with the 2009 Tigers is the inconsistency. As soon as we think we get a hold on this team they make a turn around. When they seem down and out, this team has responded with some of its best wins of the season. However, as soon as you get confident in this team and think they are ready to go a roll, they lose games to inferior opponents.

This is true for several players on this team as well. As soon as I proclaim Chris Dwyer ready to become a dominant pitcher, he finds a way to struggle. When I get nervous about his starts, he looks like Cy Young. When Casey Harman appears to be ready to become the next Brian Barnes he gets rocked. Whenever I get down on Harman he looks unhittable.

Maybe that is what we have come to learn about this team or maybe it’s just the nature of college baseball.

Clemson has won five of their last six series in the ACC. The one they lost was at Virginia Tech who is not a power in the league. The Tigers have won nine of their last 12 games with several wins against ranked teams, so winning 10 of the last 11 in order to get to 40 regular season wins is possible. But this team could go 6-5 down the stretch as well.

The one thing we do know about this team now is the idea of hosting a regional is worth talking about. This team has played its way into that conversation.

The Brad Hughes All-State Insurance Agency

Prayer List
We have started a prayer list on the blog. Here are the guidelines:
*If you are offended by prayer or prayer lists then I apologize in advance. The blog is free and the prayer list will be on the bottom of the page so you don’t have to read it.
*If you would like to add someone to the list please e-mail me at mickeyplyler@hotmail.com
*If you want the reason for the prayer to be added to the name please specify in your e-mails.
*Please let me know when it is appropriate to take the person off of the prayer list

Those who need our prayers include:
Finn Brookover, Mrs. Kathleen Bowers, Larry in Naples, FL, RTG-Pawsitive Tiger, Mary-Louise Pawlowski (John's daughter), Sandy Wright, Jo Ann Bachman, Frank Taylor, Kenneth Bryant, Pruitt Martin, Got igers and his family, David Rowland, Leonard Gillespie and his family, Jim S, Christine Hepfer, Daniel Rosborough, Amy Murphey, Jack Huffman, Nancy Winkler, Dr. Nancy Strom Morgan, Edward Putman, John Reeve, Eileen Woodrum, Ethel Southard, Vinnie Brock, Jean-Pierre Bailey, Kaitlyn L, William Perry.