Friday March 02, 2007

Friday's E-Mail Bag

Friday's E-Mail Bag
On Fridays we publish your comments and questions. To submit an e-mail, I can be reached at mickeyplyler@hotmail.com. Also, if I have not answered your e-mail yet please stay with me. I am behind because of the high volume but I am trying to get back to everyone of them. Thanks.

Dear Mickey,
Given our beloved Tigers' current position squarely on the NCAA bubble, I thought you might have some interest in a piece of research a colleague and I did several years ago, in which we developed a formula of the Selection Committee's at-large decisions. We call the formula the "Dance Card," and over the last 13 years it has been 94% accurate in predicting which teams will be selected, has never missed on more than three slots in any year, and has missed on only two ACC teams (Georgia Tech in '94, and NC State in 2003). I have a web site I'm updating daily at www.DanceCard.unf.edu, which contains a current ranking of teams, an indication of which teams would be in the tournament as of now, and more information about the formula and how it was developed. According to the Dance Card, through last night's games Clemson would still be projected to receive an at-large bid. Stated otherwise, teams with Clemson's profile have been favored by the Selection Committee more often than not. An item of particular interest: our work has shown little if any evidence that record in the last 10 games has any substantial relationship to who gets bids, once all the other information in the formula is known. The Dance Card has been published in an academic journal, and has been featured in stories by the Associated Press, ESPN: The Magazine, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Investor's Business Daily, the New York Times, CNN, CNBC, UPI, and USA Today, in addition to quite a number of media outlets dealing with data analysis to improve business and management decisions. If you'd like, I'd be more than happy to discuss the formula any time. And by the way: all that said, I'm still awfully skeptical about our chances!
With best regards,
Jay

Jay,
Great site and concept. I did not know that the last ten had so little bearing. I will be in touch and see if you would be interested in coming on the radio show next week. I will be a frequent visitor to your website in the future.

Mickey,
I was listening to some of the show and heard some comments about smaller schools and women's sports. One of the schools (Tri County maybe?) was talking about adding women's softball. Being in South Carolina with the tremendous interest that softball generates at the high school level, this is a no brainer. Many local female athletes will benefit and fans as well. Also, I heard you talking about the guys golf a Tri-County being viable. The Junior Golf program in SC is putting out hundreds of kids that are fun to watch and need a place to play in college so again this was another no brainer when that men's program was implemented at Tri County. Now to my point! Who in the world at Clemson came up with female rowing? I know a great female junior golfer who just signed at USC that I sure would have liked to see at Clemson and probably would have if we had a women's team. Cost to put on women's golf would be have to be as cost effective as rowing. Players use their own clubs for the most part, the practice facilities are in place, and I would think Niki would throw in some balls and shoes and maybe a bag or two. I could actually understand the article in the Orange and White when it says "The Clemson women won their match when Susie Tiger drained her birdie putt on number nine." I like most others have no clue when Susie Tiger pulled the left oar to plunge the boat over the bouy at Lake Hartwell to edge out Harvard. I heard a Clemson coach say one time that Clemson would never have a women's golf team. Why? It makes a lot of sense to me. Also a women's soft ball team would be more fan friendly than soccer any day in the South Carolina . I do know the cost of this would be significant but it would generate more fans than soccer. At least most of us locals would think that we know the rules and how to yell at the umpire if their was a "bad" call. I don't attend soccer because I am totally clueless. Lately , the more I learn the more clueless I become. But I do know that women's golf should already be in place at Clemson.
Mark

Mark,
Thanks for the e-mail. There is one simple answer: Title IX. Women's rowing has over 50 participants including over 30 on the varsity. Clemson needed to add a women's sport that had a high participation rate in terms of numbers of athletes. Women's golf has about 6-10 participants. Softball has a few more than golf but less than rowing. Many Tiger fans understand golf and softball but have no clue about rowing. There is no interest but the sport was not added due to interest. Actually Title IX hurts women's golf in many schools. If you add golf then you have to hire a coach and have a recruiting budget and travel budget. Its a shame but those are the facts.

Hello Mickey:
If pressed, which of your headlines would be your top three headlines? My top three.......
1. Win the ACC Basketball Tournament - I am sick and tired of being sick and tired of not winning this thing.
2. Win the CWS - Ditto
3. Honor Danny Ford in the Ring of Honor - it annoys me that the Head Coach of our only National Championship football team has not been honored. Danny won many games after the 1981 season. Danny could be a pain to the administration, but his heart was in the right place. He wanted what he believed to be the best for his team and his players.
I think the other things are going to happen in good time. These three strike me as being the most challenging and the most urgent in my mind. THANKS!
Kirk

Kirk,
Thanks for the headlines. The CWS title will come. I think before I die I will see an ACC basketball title. We still have to have a few more expensive funerals for the Ford thing to happen. As I said the other day in the blog, the good news that Ford's main detractor is not as involved in athletics as he once was.

MICKEY,
I JUST GOT BACK FROM THE GYM. I MADE 24 OUT OF 31 FREE THROWS AND I AM 63 YEARS OLD.
JOHN
John,
Got any eligibility left?

Mickey,
My headline- Bowden Bowl a Win for the Tigers Again

Mickey,
I agree with you 100% about Jack, Bob, Trevor, and Larry getting long term contracts. I grew up with all of these coaches as my mom was the assistant for three of them for many years and Larry's office was just a few doors down. You can not ask for better coaches than these in their sports and I hope that they TDP knows that as I think he does. Not living in the area any more I do not get to see them except some at football games, but when I do they still take the time to catch up quickly. Thanks for the blog and insights.
Sam

Sam,
I have found memories of your mom and dad's time here at Clemson. Your mom was kind and always represented Clemson very well. Your dad helped me with tires on several occasions. I think most in the athletic department understand the true gems they have in those coaches.

Mickey -
I enjoy reading your blogs & occasionally listen to your show on the internet. Thanks for your effort.
One question about last Fall has been with me for awhile:
To what degree do you think Rob Spence, after watching Proctor in practice, had to tone down the game plan based on his performance ? After Ford won the 60 meters this weekend, all the talk about limited game plans not getting the ball to the playmakers surfaced again. I'm wondering if Spence saw some weaknesses & could not call the game the way he wanted, and being a gentleman, wouldn't speak up and throw Proctor under the bus.
Thanks again for all your effort.
Jim

Jim,
I think they were limited in the passing game for a couple of reasons. I just wished they would not have tried to prove they were balanced and just ran the ball more.

Mickey:
Now that the golf team has won a national title, there are two remaining golf headlines that I would like to see one day:
"Former Tiger Wins Major"
"Former Tiger Leads US to Ryder Cup Victory"
Old Green Tom

Old Green Tom,
Thanks for the headlines. I think we will have a Clemson golfer win a major in the next few years. I wish Lucas would have had a chance on the Ryder Cup last year but I do think he will make it next time.

Mickey,
I have tried to be hopeful about Clemson basketball ever being more than what it is. I have tried to be hopeful about the current basketball coach, although he would have never been in my top 100 choices at the time of his hiring. I was hopeful when the team was undefeated, knowing they were not a talented team. But again, reality has set in. Has there ever been a team to win their 1st 17, but still not win 20 games? There is nothing to make me believe that there is a winnable game left out there for Clemson. Here is some more reality. Consider this starting lineup. Sam Perry, David Potter, Raymond Sykes, Julius Powell & AJ Tyler. That lineup would not be competitive in the Southern Conference or Big South, yet they received scholarships to play in the ACC. I know that the so called blue-chippers will always go to Chapel Hill & Durham, that’s more reality, but there has to be some fundamentally sound basketball players out there. These so called athletes that can not shoot, box out or defend will never change the state of Tiger program. The current starting point guard shoots under 50 % from the foul line. Again, that’s the reality. Maybe some day. Hopefully.
Regards,
Bill

Bill,
I think Potter has potential but he needs more confidence. Perry will never be an offensive threat but brings some defense. The point guard play has been a major disappointment. I may be blind but I see improvement each year.

Mickey,
Congrats on your blogs. I got a contact in the athletic dept and few people realize how right you were.keep up the good work.
Henry

Henry,
Thanks. I am still a little concerned that the administration is talking out of both sides of their mouths. I hope that we are not just getting lip service. Keep your foot on the gas.

Mickey,
I know you believe that Willy Korn will be the starting QB for Clemson this year. But don't you believe that would be bad for Clemson? How many true freshmen QBs come in to Division 1-A ball and don't struggle if they play, rather than redshirt? It's very hard to think of any. Look at Mustain (who had his high school coach as his OC and had running backs even better than Spiller and Davis as support), Stafford and Tebow (both Stafford and Tebow had much better talent for overall supporting cast than Korn will). They all came in, frankly, more highly rated than Korn. Yet they all struggled last season. So, I find it puzzling that you think Korn can come in and play effectively throughout the year when more talented QBs were not able to do so last season. Are the returning QBs that bad that Clemson has no other option than to depend on a true freshman?
Deno

Deno,
I think they would love to have a senior quarterback and be able to bring korn along slowly. Unfortunately they do not that luxury. I think they want to play the best quarterback and if he happens to be a freshmen then so be it. You are right in that those other freshmen struggled. Hopefully Korn will be successful.

Mickey,
I sent a note to Barker before this "committee" was announced. It quoted Ross Perot when he said, "If you see a snake, shoot it. Don't appoint a committee to study it." I think this is still the best philosophy. I think this committee is just stalling to let the furor die down and to get people who are upset to pay their IPTAY dues before the deadline.
Outside the athletic arena, some of us older Clemson graduates are concerned that the drive to Barker's magic top 20 with its ever increasing entry and academic standards will serve to squeeze out or at least disadvantage in-state applicants and worsen the historic diversity problems which have seeming plagued Clemson forever. We think that Barker and the Board have forgotten why Thomas Clemson left the money and land to start the school - service and educational opportunities for the people of the state.
Tom

Tom,
I miss Ross Perot on Larry King every night. Like you and your friends, I have major concerns about the direction of the university. I read the will often and can't find anything about top 20.

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