Thursday November 20, 2008

Clemson vs Virginia Prediction by Rev O

I forgot to figure into my prediction last week the fact that Thaddeus Lewis was going to get knocked out of the game in the first quarter. If I had known that then I would have deducted 14 pts from my prediction!! Then again if I was that good I would have known that was going to happen! As was the case, it may not have mattered anyhow since the Clemson defense showed up ready to play hard nosed football. Can they do it two weeks in a row? I hope so because UVA plays well at home. The stats in the Duke game were overwhelmingly in Clemson's favor culminating with the Tiger's racking up 466 total offensive yards while limiting the Blue Devil offense to only 168 total yards. Looking at the stats, UVA is similar to Duke. I have included Duke's statistical ranking (when they played Clemson) below for easy comparison. This would lead you to believe that Clemson should be an overwhelming favorite since they were able to handle Duke with ease, right? I guess we'll find out on Saturday.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage Clemson

Clemson Scoring Offense is 5th in the ACC. UVA Scoring Defense is 10th in the ACC. Duke was 11th.
Clemson Total Offense is 3rd in the ACC. UVA Total Defense is 8th in the ACC. Duke was 9th.
Clemson Rushing Offense is 8th in the ACC. UVA Rushing Defense is 11th in the ACC. Duke was 8th.
Clemson Passing Offense is 1st in the ACC. UVA Pass Defense is 7th in the ACC. Duke was 9th.

UVA is second in the ACC with 28 sacks. They trail ACC leading FSU by only one. Duke got 5 sacks against Clemson. Clemson ranks 10th in the ACC is sacks allowed. I'm sure UVA will try to take advantage of this weakness in the Clemson offense. They will bring pressure. Cullen might be doing a little scrambling this game. I hope he's up to the challenge. He's done well recently. Harper is leading the ACC in passing (207.5 yds/gm) as well as Pass Efficiency (128.5) so his play has improved greatly. Of course Willy Korn will be waiting anxiously on the sideline if called upon to counter this threat since he's a more mobile QB but he still has not fully recovered from a bruised shoulder suffered in the GT game and his passing ability will be limited as far as throwing deep is concerned. UVA was able to keep a good GT offense under control but GT does not pose a passing threat. Clemson does. CJ Spiller still leads the ACC in all purpose yds. That's a given after the Duke game. I think Clemson has found a method that is helping them to win. Get the ball to Spiller. He has average 11 yards per touch over the last 3 games. On the other side of the ball it looks like Senior LB Clint Sintim has taken up where DE Chris Long left off. He's leading the ACC in sacks with 9 solo and 3 assists. He's also third in tackles for loses. UVA also has Senior DE Alex Field and Sophomore LB John Kevin Dolce in the top 13 of the list of ACC sack leaders. Looking elsewhere at the UVA defense, I find nothing. Their defense overall is average to below average. UVA is 11th in rushing defense while Clemson is only 8th in rushing offense so I'm not sure this will pose a big threat to UVA's defense at least when it comes to running up the middle but Clemson has had some success up the middle on occasion. Again, I think Clemson will use their speed to get to the outside and when I say this I'm thinking CJ Spiller. They will also use Spiller in the passing game again too. And why not? He was named the ACC Offensive Back of the Week for his performance in the Duke game with 108 yds receiving to go with 71 yds rushing. He also had 105 yds receiving in the BC game so there is a trend here. When something is working good why change it. Or as I say, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it". Of course Davis will try to exploit the area between the tackles and will have some success I think. And another thing - control turnovers. Clemson won the turnover margin against Duke. They need to win it against UVA too.

When Virginia has the ball: Advantage Clemson

UVA Scoring Offense is 12th in the ACC. Clemson Scoring Defense is 3rd in the ACC. Duke was 7th.
UVA Total Offense is 8th in the ACC. Clemson Total Defense is 6th in the ACC. Duke was 5th.
UVA Rushing Offense is 12th in the ACC. Clemson Rushing Defense is 7th in the ACC. Duke was 10th.
UVA Passing Offense is 2nd in the ACC. Clemson Pass Defense is 1st in the ACC. Duke was 1st.

UVA is last in the ACC in scoring offense with 17.6 points/game. On the flip side, the UVA offense has only given up 12 sacks all year and ranks 2nd in the ACC. BC ranks 1st with giving up only 11 sacks. RB Cedric Peerman has been their go to guy as of late. He's 4th in the ACC in rushing averaging 73.6 yds per game. Keeping him in check will be a key to the game. Clemson has put pressure on QBs this year but have not been able to get the sacks they would like. On the bright side, since Dabo Sweeney has taken over, the Tiger defense has made a steady climb from 8th to 1st in pass defense!!! This is a huge deal. They are now doing much better on 3rd down plays. They have gained confidence which makes all the difference in the world. Clemson did a great job holding the 1st rated Duke pass offense to 85 yds last week. Sure, Thaddeus Lewis got hurt early but to still hold an offense to below 100 yds passing is an accomplishment. UVA boasts the number 2 pass offense in the ACC. UVA QB Marc Verica is averaging 200 yds through the air per game. WR Kevin Ogletree, TE John Phillips and RB Cedric Peerman are 5th, 6th and 8th respectively in receiving in the ACC so you can see where the majority of the Cavalier offense comes from. UVA has always made the TE part of their passing game and with good success. Peerman is used on the short routes out of the backfield averaging only 4.5 yds/reception so Clemson will need to put someone on him especially on third down situations. Again, control Peerman. The Clemson defense will have a chance to show that they are for real and I hope they do well. They have been coming together very well lately. The defensive front has done a good job too.

Special Teams: Advantage Clemson

Clemson continues to do well in this category. The Spiller factor remains a dominating force.

Intangibles: Advantage Virginia

UVA is tough at home. They are 4-2 in home games this year. They lost to Southern California in the first game of the year and then in overtime to a good Miami team. Three of their four home wins have come against very good teams (ECU, MD and UNC).

Prediction:

Statistically, Duke matched up with Clemson better than UVA does now. UVA does well in the sack category but statistically, it really hasn't helped the UVA defense to be dominant. Clemson has much more talent and speed. The bookies have Clemson as 2.5 pt favorites. What do they know? I have worked the numbers several times and looked at the match ups. My numbers tell me it will be a blow out in Charlottesville. Have I become too optimistic again or am I just plain out of my mind? I'm going out on a limb here. Clemson shows up ready to play. Call me crazy!!!

Clemson 38 UVA 10

Go Tigers!!

Reverend Optimistic